Europe should not waste energy on discussing an envoy to a non-existent negotiation with Moscow, but concentrate on supporting Ukraine until Putin can no longer sustain the war
C'è un aspetto che nessun analista/commentatore prende in considerazione: gli ucraini che crepano e creperanno durante questa resistenza a oltranza in attesa che la macchina militare russa si rompa. Civili ma, soprattutto, militari, perlopiù giovani. Oltre ad altre migliaia di giovani russi.
Ovviamente la resa non è un'opzione.
Ovviamente una trattativa presuppone una contraparte disponibile a trattare (che forse non c'è, ma ne siamo così sicuri).
Però forse è arrivato il momento in cui un compromesso potrebbe essere accettabile per entrambe le parti, ma per arrivarci serve l'aiuto dell'Europa.
THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!! ANTI-MAGAT American Patriot. Supporting Ukraine against the invaders. Opposing the Kremlin West Wing and US Duma. Слава Україні!
This is not a war of Russian aggression, quite the opposite. NATO is fighting a proxy war against Russia with Ukrainian lives. A proxy war which Mi6 and the OSS (now CIA) have been preparing since 1943, when they realised that Russia would not be defeated by the Nazis. It was ignited in February 2022, using a strategy known as "Provocation and Revenge". This describes the school bully who hits his classmates while the teacher isn't looking, and then claims to be the victim when someone hits back.
One of the final straws for Russia was Kiev's attempt to ethnically cleanse the Donbass. In February 2022, a 100,000 strong AFU invasion force fired thousands of shells a day at civilian areas, driving over 148,000 people from their homes. A peaceful solution was ruled out by Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Daniel Kuleba, who told CBS 60 Minutes that: "Ukraine will never honor the Minsk ceasefire".
Zelensky knew that 100,000 Russian soldiers were ready to defend the people of the Donbass, so he knew what was likely to happen next. Indeed his Presidential adviser had already announced that: "Our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia." To make sure that Russia took the bait, Zelensky told the Munich Security Conference that: “Ukraine will get and deploy nuclear missiles". Russia could no more tolerate this than America would tolerate the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. So this tipped the balance in favour of a Special Military Operation to defend the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. This then gave NATO the excuse it was looking for to fight a proxy war against Russia.
On the first day of the Special Military Operation, Russia reduced the threat to the people of the Donbass by destroying 90% of Kiev's air defense, drones. and military airports. On the second day of the SMO, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov requested peace talks.
When the two sides met at Istanbul, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Oleksandr Chalyi said: "[Russia] demonstrated a genuine effort to find a realistic compromise and achieve peace.” An agreement was reached which the former chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, described as "an excellent result for Ukraine". Zekensky's presidential adviser, Oleksi Arestovych, said: "It was the most profitable agreement we could have done... We opened the champagne bottle."
However Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev, and Zelensky announced: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war, because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and at the cost of Ukrainian lives". In the full knowledge of what it could do to his country, Zelensky attacked the Russian soldiers who were retreating as a sign of good faith, and passed a law which declared it impossible to ever to negotiate with Putin.
Russia is not going to stop defending the people of the Donbass, or leave itself vulnerable to future NATO aggression. At the same time, Kiev is no more willing to resolve things peacefully than it was when it reneged on Minsk I, Minsk II, the Steinmeier Formula and the Istanbul Communique. It doesn't matter to Zelensky that he has already sacrificed at least two million lives for his Western bosses, because he has made himself fabulously rich in the process. So he will honour his promise to Boris Johnson, by fighting "to the last Ukrainian" to weaken Russia. In the circumstances, I'm not surprised to learn that luliia Mendel is no longer Zelensky's press secretary, because she recently tweeted:-
"Every subsequent deal for Ukraine will only be worse — because we are losing. We are losing people, territory, and the economy... Arguments that "Russia has gained so little land" sound almost childish when you consider the human cost. We have lost more people in three years than some European nations have as the whole population. My country is bleeding out. MANY WHO REFLEXIVELY OPPOSE EVERY PEACE PROPOSAL BELIEVE THEY ARE DEFENDING UKRAINE. WITH ALL RESPECT, THAT IS THE CLEAREST PROOF THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING on the front lines and inside the country right now."
"War is not a Hollywood movie. I will never abandon the values that God and democracy both place at the very foundation of human existence: human life is the highest good, and people — living, breathing people — are the ones who must be saved" (emphasis added).
Good afternoon! Thank you for the article — I agree with you that it's getting harder for Russia to keep fighting, but the situation is still far from critical. I looked into the reasons behind this economic trajectory (first the substantial growth of 2023–2024, then the downturn) in my latest post, and I'd be curious to hear your view: https://substack.com/home/post/p-201262469. Now third of the federal budget now goes to the war. Taxes have already been raised, the reserves are down by 60%, and Russia is selling gold.
There was an interview by BigMac on YouTube. He is fighting in Ukraine, he said that Ukraine’s frontline manpower is depleted and there might be a breakout this year. Also the U.S. is working on countermeasures for drones and do you think it will just stick with them?
Thanks, agree and good call!
I would even go further:
1. Putin has accepted that Europe matters, whereas before he neglected that
2. Allowing Ukraine to defeat Russia seriously now is the best guarantee for lasting peace in Europe
-> Europe now needs to step up:
A) Stop Russian tankers
B) Set up Skyshield to defend West Ukraine
C) Speed up development and production of long range strike capabilities for Ukraine and Europe
That’s good, Nathalie, thank you!
Excellent , 100% agree.
C'è un aspetto che nessun analista/commentatore prende in considerazione: gli ucraini che crepano e creperanno durante questa resistenza a oltranza in attesa che la macchina militare russa si rompa. Civili ma, soprattutto, militari, perlopiù giovani. Oltre ad altre migliaia di giovani russi.
Ovviamente la resa non è un'opzione.
Ovviamente una trattativa presuppone una contraparte disponibile a trattare (che forse non c'è, ma ne siamo così sicuri).
Però forse è arrivato il momento in cui un compromesso potrebbe essere accettabile per entrambe le parti, ma per arrivarci serve l'aiuto dell'Europa.
THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!! ANTI-MAGAT American Patriot. Supporting Ukraine against the invaders. Opposing the Kremlin West Wing and US Duma. Слава Україні!
Grazie. Seguo sempre con molto piacere
We are all better off if we make America’s war machine collapse.
The undeniable fact is that Russia never ever invaded the West. But the West invaded Russia on numerous occasions.
This is not a war of Russian aggression, quite the opposite. NATO is fighting a proxy war against Russia with Ukrainian lives. A proxy war which Mi6 and the OSS (now CIA) have been preparing since 1943, when they realised that Russia would not be defeated by the Nazis. It was ignited in February 2022, using a strategy known as "Provocation and Revenge". This describes the school bully who hits his classmates while the teacher isn't looking, and then claims to be the victim when someone hits back.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article189895.html
https://mronline.org/2022/09/14/ukraine/
One of the final straws for Russia was Kiev's attempt to ethnically cleanse the Donbass. In February 2022, a 100,000 strong AFU invasion force fired thousands of shells a day at civilian areas, driving over 148,000 people from their homes. A peaceful solution was ruled out by Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Daniel Kuleba, who told CBS 60 Minutes that: "Ukraine will never honor the Minsk ceasefire".
Zelensky knew that 100,000 Russian soldiers were ready to defend the people of the Donbass, so he knew what was likely to happen next. Indeed his Presidential adviser had already announced that: "Our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia." To make sure that Russia took the bait, Zelensky told the Munich Security Conference that: “Ukraine will get and deploy nuclear missiles". Russia could no more tolerate this than America would tolerate the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. So this tipped the balance in favour of a Special Military Operation to defend the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. This then gave NATO the excuse it was looking for to fight a proxy war against Russia.
https://johnbartlett1.substack.com/p/kievs-2022-invasion-which-started
On the first day of the Special Military Operation, Russia reduced the threat to the people of the Donbass by destroying 90% of Kiev's air defense, drones. and military airports. On the second day of the SMO, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov requested peace talks.
When the two sides met at Istanbul, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Oleksandr Chalyi said: "[Russia] demonstrated a genuine effort to find a realistic compromise and achieve peace.” An agreement was reached which the former chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, described as "an excellent result for Ukraine". Zekensky's presidential adviser, Oleksi Arestovych, said: "It was the most profitable agreement we could have done... We opened the champagne bottle."
However Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev, and Zelensky announced: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war, because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and at the cost of Ukrainian lives". In the full knowledge of what it could do to his country, Zelensky attacked the Russian soldiers who were retreating as a sign of good faith, and passed a law which declared it impossible to ever to negotiate with Putin.
https://johnbartlett1.substack.com/p/the-istanbul-communique-a-peace-deal
Russia is not going to stop defending the people of the Donbass, or leave itself vulnerable to future NATO aggression. At the same time, Kiev is no more willing to resolve things peacefully than it was when it reneged on Minsk I, Minsk II, the Steinmeier Formula and the Istanbul Communique. It doesn't matter to Zelensky that he has already sacrificed at least two million lives for his Western bosses, because he has made himself fabulously rich in the process. So he will honour his promise to Boris Johnson, by fighting "to the last Ukrainian" to weaken Russia. In the circumstances, I'm not surprised to learn that luliia Mendel is no longer Zelensky's press secretary, because she recently tweeted:-
"Every subsequent deal for Ukraine will only be worse — because we are losing. We are losing people, territory, and the economy... Arguments that "Russia has gained so little land" sound almost childish when you consider the human cost. We have lost more people in three years than some European nations have as the whole population. My country is bleeding out. MANY WHO REFLEXIVELY OPPOSE EVERY PEACE PROPOSAL BELIEVE THEY ARE DEFENDING UKRAINE. WITH ALL RESPECT, THAT IS THE CLEAREST PROOF THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING on the front lines and inside the country right now."
"War is not a Hollywood movie. I will never abandon the values that God and democracy both place at the very foundation of human existence: human life is the highest good, and people — living, breathing people — are the ones who must be saved" (emphasis added).
https://johnbartlett1.substack.com/p/military-losses-in-the-ukrainian
https://www.quora.com/Which-side-is-more-reliable-at-honouring-its-promises-Russia-or-the-West/answer/Question
Good afternoon! Thank you for the article — I agree with you that it's getting harder for Russia to keep fighting, but the situation is still far from critical. I looked into the reasons behind this economic trajectory (first the substantial growth of 2023–2024, then the downturn) in my latest post, and I'd be curious to hear your view: https://substack.com/home/post/p-201262469. Now third of the federal budget now goes to the war. Taxes have already been raised, the reserves are down by 60%, and Russia is selling gold.
There was an interview by BigMac on YouTube. He is fighting in Ukraine, he said that Ukraine’s frontline manpower is depleted and there might be a breakout this year. Also the U.S. is working on countermeasures for drones and do you think it will just stick with them?
https://hansboserup.substack.com/p/ukraines-fight-for-justice-has-already